Coffee, Wine, Mezcal—and the Trade War That Just Rewrote Your Beverage Program

Let’s call it what it is. Tariffs are back, and they’re dressed like a hurricane wrapped in a press release. As of this year, the beverage industry—especially the parts that rely heavily on imports—is waking up with a pounding headache and no Pedialyte in sight.

If you’re in hospitality, this isn’t just economic policy. It’s a fire drill. The operators who stay in motion, tell the truth, and serve with clarity will come out stronger. Everyone else is about to get humbled.

The Caffeine Cliff

The United States drinks 400 million cups of coffee every single day. We grow about one percent of the world’s coffee. You don’t need a macroeconomics degree to see the disconnect.

Counter Culture Coffee, one of the more admired players in third-wave coffee, just put it plainly: unless it’s from Mexico, their coffee is getting hit with tariffs. Which means your $7 pour-over is about to cost $8.50. Your daily ritual is about to feel like a weekend splurge.

This is more than just a pricing issue. It’s a brand moment.

Hospitality Takeaway
Don’t hide the increase. Explain it. Make sure your baristas and floor staff are educated and ready to talk to guests about why things cost more. When you involve people in the “why,” they’re more willing to stay loyal through the “how much.”

Roasters around the country are building spreadsheets, modeling new cost scenarios, and probably stress-brewing their third espresso shot by noon. The math is clear, and it’s not friendly. If you’re buying green coffee, you’re about to get taxed for the privilege.

Mezcal’s Moment

Meanwhile, over in agave country, it’s business as usual.

Thanks to a convenient exception in the new tariff policies, Mexican spirits are largely untouched. While coffee roasters are sweating over spreadsheets, Mezcal producers are topping off their glasses and watching the chaos unfold from a safe distance.

Hospitality Takeaway
Highlight Mezcal. Put it at the center of your bar program this quarter. Add tasting flights. Run Mezcal Mondays. The combination of economic advantage and guest interest creates an opening—use it before it closes.

This isn’t just good timing. It’s a once-in-a-decade advantage. While other categories are being restructured, Mezcal is stable, high-margin, and in demand. If you’re not leaning into it, you’re missing the moment.

Natural Wine, Unbothered

Then there’s natural wine, which seems to exist in its own orbit anyway. Importers and shop owners in this space aren’t panicking. One recently said, “We’re looking at more domestic producers, but we started this business to highlight the coolest wines from France and Italy. If the prices need to go up, they will.”

That’s not stubbornness. That’s conviction. Natural wine drinkers aren’t hunting for deals. They’re looking for story, ethics, and aesthetic. A few more dollars per bottle won’t scare them off.

Hospitality Takeaway
If your brand is built on values, now is the time to double down. Don’t try to undercut your competitors on price. Just tell a better, more transparent story. Your guests are looking for reasons to stay loyal. Give them one.

Natural wine is betting that its audience would rather spend a little more than compromise what they believe in. That’s not a pricing strategy. That’s identity preservation.

Distributors in Denial

The most revealing response comes from a giant in beverage distribution (you know the one, rhymes with “Mouthern Blazer’s”). One executive said, “We’re actually more reactive than proactive, and we haven’t really reacted yet. Suppliers are taking the hit right now and we assume they’ll adjust pricing, which we’ll pass through.”

Translation: “We’re waiting for someone else to move first.”

This kind of pass-the-buck strategy might work when the economy is calm, but in a moment like this, indecision is a liability. If you’re an operator relying on your distributor to tell you when the world has changed, you’re already late.

Hospitality Takeaway
Start building more direct relationships with importers and small producers. Loyalty goes both ways. When supply chains tighten, the people you’ve supported are the ones who’ll support you.

The Next Six Months

By the third quarter, expect a 15 to 20 percent increase across most imported beverages that don’t fall under an exemption. Consumers will grumble, but most will pay. American producers will see a short-term bump as buyers look for domestic alternatives. And Mexico? They’re about to have a moment.

Expect to see “Proudly Mexican” stamped on everything from canned spritzers to roasted beans. This will be more than a sourcing pivot. It’s a full-on cultural opportunity.

The real losers here will be the middle market. Premium brands can hold the line. Budget options will reformulate, shrink, or cut corners. But the middle gets squeezed—by suppliers, by rising costs, and by price-sensitive guests.

And hospitality? You’re right in the middle of the squeeze.

Hospitality Takeaway
Now’s the time to do a menu audit. Where are your imported vulnerabilities? What items can absorb increases, and where do you need a narrative to back up a higher price? Don’t wait for your guests to notice—get ahead of the conversation.

Final Word: Who’s Swimming Naked?

As Warren Buffett said, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

This tariff wave isn’t making anyone fail. It’s just exposing what was already weak. If you’ve been building on purpose, if your staff is trained, if your sourcing is thoughtful, you’re probably fine. Maybe even stronger for it.

But if you’ve been coasting, now’s when it catches up.

Disruption doesn’t reward size. It rewards clarity. And in hospitality, the operators who can communicate why things matter, even when they cost more, are the ones who guests will remember and return to.

Because when the world gets more expensive, what people really want is to feel taken care of.